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“As the next 12 months unfold, and the pace of change in the mobility sector likely quickens, we would like to raise several key questions regarding the future of mobility as a whole and of the four ACES trends in particular. First, the general question: Will cities build integrated seamless mobility plans and, in the process, orchestrate ecosystems and drive the four ACES trends to completion as elements of their own visions of smart cities?
For AVs, how will the experiences of the first real-life applications influence the subsequent industry, and should mobility players focus on managing the public debate on the levels of technology failure users will accept? Likewise, will we see a convergence of driving systems, and will clear “winners” emerge in the tech stack?
As for connected cars, will increasing connectivity enable breakthroughs in certain use cases, such as predictive maintenance? Will players create business models around connectivity that create new levels of value for consumers?
Regarding electrification, how will the availability of many more EVs play out? Will it seem like a general market ramp-up, or will market shares of established OEMs versus new players change the retail market in fundamental ways? What will happen to industry profitability?
Regarding smart and shared mobility, will use cases emerge that can scale up shared mobility in areas like commuting? Will established platform providers become the winners behind mobility as a service and new mobility platforms? And finally, what will it take to establish a successful micromobility business? As the future of mobility begins to unfold, companies, regulators, and society alike will need to keep both eyes on the street in 2019 to manage the technological disruptions.”